The stock market may mean more to the presidential election than any poll can predict.
In presidential elections since 1900, the Dow’s direction has predicted who will win the White House 90% of the time. According to market watcher James Stack of InvesTech Research, the Dow has called the results 25 out of the past 28 times in the last 112 years.
Here’s how it works: if the Dow Industrial Average goes up from Labor Day until Election Day, the current President will win re-election. If it’s down, the challenger will win. The theory is that a positive performing stock market means confident investors, a good economic outlook, so the current administration should stay.
Through Monday (9/24), the Dow is up 521 points since Labor Day, with more than 200 of those points gained when the Federal Reserve announced another round of quantitative easing on September 13th.
Investors and the stock market have a lot of economic data and debates to digest over the next 44 days.
Until then, I’m going watch Wall Street with one eye, and the Official Cup Count with the other. The latest tally there (thru 9/23) has Romney 4,228 cups sold and Obama with 3,464.
Peace Love Profits,